Apprasial Notes

Market Analysis - Rockingham County

This is a review of MLS sales in Rockingham County. It shows the average price, average reported GLA above grade, the average price per square foot and the average days on market for : active sales, under agreement sales, sales in the last six months and sales in the prior six month. I prefer looking and six month market periods because this lessens the effect of extreme weather and holiday periods that has traditionally impacted sales. Also, I divided the market into price segments in order to look at the spectrum of available price ranges.

Sales volume has increased in the last six months compared to the prior six months in all the price segments. Higher end property sales appear to have been very slow in the prior six months but have somewhat rebounded in the last six months. Sales under $250,000 increased dramatically.

The average size in that category also increased. This would appear to indicate some drop down from the next higher category but the volume in the $250-$500k category also increased and the average square footage and price per square foot were somewhat stable. This implies that simply more low end properties are available and selling in the local market.

The $250K to $500K segment was the most stable in terms of price over the two periods and had the highest volume of sales and listings. Based on sales and under agreements over the last twelve months the following absorption rates were estimated for the active listings: $100k to $250k – 7 to 8 months; $250k-500k – 10 to 11 months; $500k to $750k – 15 to 16 months; $750k to $1M – 20 to 21 months; $1m+ - 18 to 19 months. These figures must be submitted with the caveat that the recent losses in the stock market have undoubtedly put a hold on many people’s plans to enter the real estate market. The winter has been very slow over the past several years even when property values were still increasing.

Average sale price for the middle three categories has been somewhat stable. Averages for sale price have dropped slightly in the low end category and significantly in the high end category. Active listings appear to be realistically priced. All are near or at the level of the average sales price over the last six months in each category with the exception of the high end sales.

Average property size has remained stable in the $250 to $750 categories. Unit size dropped significantly in the $750K to $1M segment but average sale price per square foot increased. Unit size dropped slightly in the $1+ category and price per square foot fell significantly. Marketing time dropped significantly in the top three categories. It rose significantly in the $250K to $500K category and was stable in the low end category.